January 29th, 2026

 

Background

The Financial Sector Deepening Kenya (FSD Kenya) FSD Kenya is an independent public charitable trust dedicated to creating value through inclusive finance. FSD Kenya works closely with public sector, the financial services industry, and other partners to unlock resilient future for women, youth, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and their communities through value-adding finance for inclusive economic transformation.

Objectives

To engage the services of a Consultant(s) to undertake a market wide study as a prerequisite to ‘deep’ scaling of financial solutions for excluded segments in Kenya. Specifically, a consultant who is to conduct demand side research that examines and demonstrates how small-scale producers, particularly women and small agricultural enterprises interact with credit, including their motivations, usage patterns, sourcing, decision-making dynamics, and barriers.

Scope of work

It is anticipated that the demand-side areas of consideration for the market wide study will include (but are not limited to): a. exploring the components of personal, household and business debt at a granular level, b. developing an understanding of the relationships, elasticities, interactions and inflection points between these components, and, c. understanding how these insights can be leveraged to enhance credit risk assessment, inform product design and diminish barriers to exclusion. This is expected to cover the following areas:

• Exclusion effects embedded within the demand side beyond FinAccess and CRB data. The analysis should consider the following aspects:
  • Elasticities of cashflows and how this affects carrying capacity/level of household debt of smallholders
  • Borrowing histories and sources, application, self-rationing, etc for small scale producers and MSMEs
  • Trade-offs necessary for elasticity of cashflows from the demand side (survival/utility/ discretionary vs core expenses) and decisioning from a lenders’ perspective. Is it possible that an overreliance on cashflow lending alone creates a loan limit that constrains the recipient to ‘survival/utility credit’ rather than credit which allows for expansion and capital investment?
• Predictability and cost of risk: The analysis should consider the following aspects:
  • Minimum viable data for credit and underwriting that is useful for and allows for uniform understanding of how to construct simple and accurate available cash/ cashflow calculations, that are robust enough to stand up to the ‘sufficient excess capacity to repay’ standard.
  • Credit loan products, pricing, terms and conditions and their relevance for core constituents.
  • Insights on events, times, cashflow configurations, and other factors that prompt higher likelihoods of default for smallholders.
  • Analyse how minimum viable data can support credit and insurance underwriting; assess credit and insurance product design, pricing, and relevance; identify cashflow stress points and default drivers; and evaluate how insurance can enhance smallholder resilience, stabilise repayments, and reduce lender risk
• Small scale producer’s debt modelling: The consultant is expected to prioritise a deep dive into indebtedness for small scale producers, explore underlying reasons and mitigation measures.
• Exclusion effects are embedded within the regulatory and orchestration dimensions, in addition to alternative data sources and analytic methods.
• In consultation with FSD Kenya’s team, coalesce this information into a living empirically derived framework and set of guiding credit scoring principles that allow for quantitative and perception engagement with smallholders with tendencies of the lender and vice

– Leverage two ongoing pilots (overseen by FSD Kenya) geared on testing approaches to credit scoring for smallholders that are in effect making an initial attempt to identify and mature atypical data for credit risk and analytics and in effect improve credit availability to deeply excluded segments of farmers.

Requirements for EOI submission and shortlisting

Due to the various skills required for this work, consultants may form a consortium and submit a joint response. Expressions of Interest (EOIs) must not exceed ten (10) pages, inclusive of all annexes. Any pages submitted beyond this limit will not be considered for evaluation

Interested consultants must provide the following information:

• Brief profile of the consultant/ company: Legal name, registration, address, and primary contact details
• Overview of the consultant’s/company’s experience and key personnel’s qualifications related to the scope of work above.
• Summary of similar assignments completed with public and private sector in diverse credit markets especially those with similarities to Kenya
• Demonstrated technical expertise in credit risk assessments and analytics
• Demonstrated experience in undertaking similar assignments – relevant qualitative and quantitative landscape research and analysis

No financial information is required at this stage.

Submission process

Consultants interested in this opportunity are encouraged to submit their Expressions of Interest by Thursday, February 19th, 2026, at 12:00pm (East Africa Time) via email to tenders@fsdkenya.org. A virtual meeting may be arranged with selected bidders to discuss the project scope and objectives. Following this, a complete and detailed Terms of Reference will be shared with the shortlisted firms/consultants for them to submit their proposals for the assignment.

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